#coins

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      • badon
        hi christinemarie20
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      • Brainstorm
        New from Coin Compendium Forum: Re: MCC LIST #183, move from LBC and continuation here at the CC forum: In the pre-publication drafts: I'm struggling to keep this secret about the 2014 and 2016 Nanjing pandas... It's viewable by registered CCF members only. — from r/coins: So what is this and how much is it worth? I'm hoping for an answer this time. → https://is.gd/YoKhIe
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      • badon
        hi SageOSwag
      • SageOSwag
        Wow, lot of connections here
      • badon
        SageOSwag: Here's where the Nanjing 2016 65 g silver panda sold out: https://forum.coincompendium.com/index.php?topi...
      • SageOSwag: This video is a much better introduction: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl5OGzlYjJw
      • SageOSwag
        Wow, only 30?
      • badon
        Yep.
      • And priced too cheap.
      • It was only $300.
      • It'll easily reach $1000 in the next 2 years or so, maybe faster. Maybe a LOT faster.
      • SageOSwag
        Nice. Pandas are very in right now
      • badon
        Actually, I think some people who got more than 1 will probably put one on ebay. That could drive prices up quick if they use the cheap auction format.
      • SageOSwag
        Good point
      • badon
        Yeah, and they're only going to get hotter. Well, actually PRC coins in general.
      • SageOSwag
        I was just going to ask if that was PRC
      • badon
        fiat 1/2 oz gold pandas are way overpriced.
      • Yes, it's the Nanjing mint.
      • There are 4 official mints of the PRC, and the Nanjing mint is the underdog. They'll eventually be like Carson City, where their coins are always more valuable, just because they don't mint as much.
      • SageOSwag: After you see the video, this is the topic that lays out all the available info about the best pandas for investment purposes: https://forum.coincompendium.com/index.php?topi...
      • Oh, and be sure to revel in my awesomeness, haha: https://tr.im/1tifF
      • SageOSwag
        Very interesting. I don't know the first thing about coin collecting, yet, but I can easily get into anything that lends itself to nerdism ;)
      • badon
        Yeah, and you're a blade guy, so you're not totally unfamiliar with the tendency to collect cool stuff.
      • It's just that sometimes, it's NOT a money pit :)
      • SageOSwag
        Heheh, nice punny irony, there
      • badon
        A few coins are actually very good investments, and even the worst of them are better than 99% of the other crap people spend their money on.
      • SageOSwag
        Too true. Especially in the western world, with economies engineered to sell people loads of constantly depreciating stuff they don't need.
      • badon
        Yep.
      • Coins have been collected since the day they were invented about 2300 years ago.
      • As investments, and a store of value, they're never going away. They do have ups and downs like everything else does,
      • SageOSwag
        Of course. Especially given their value as curios
      • badon
        The first and most important thing to know about coin collecting and investing is it's one big weakness - poor liquidity. It can take months or years to sell a very valuable coin for a top market price.
      • SageOSwag
        By which time the top market price can change. Yeah, low liquidity can make for a difficult investment. Guess you just have to stay diverse, like anything else
      • badon
        The only people who are good at making quick money on coins are dealers, and the qualifications to be a successful dealer are akin to college degree, so very few people are able to succeed even as coin dealers.
      • Right, diversification is how the dealers do it.
      • SageOSwag
        Yeah, like being a high-end wine merchant, I'd imagine. LOTS of education to know what to look for, when.
      • badon
        They have a HUGE amount of money invested in their inventory. It's not uncommon for a dealer who only makes $25'000 USD per year to have over $1 million USD in his inventory.
      • SageOSwag
        Wow, umbrella insurance, anyone?
      • badon
        But, since he's diversified, he usually has something that is selling OK even during bad times.
      • And, since the coins are such safe investments, if the market is just not cooperating, he can go get a real job and just let the coins sit for a while.
      • For myself, I could easily become a top dealer, no problem. I'm one of the world's top numismatic experts. But, I'm only interested in investing, so I'm very careful about what I buy and what I sell.
      • I don't want to get into a situation where I need to keep selling stuff to make money. That's work, not investing.
      • And it's work that doesn't pay well, haha.
      • SageOSwag
        Ha, in it for the long game then. Nice. A little more luck involved, sure, but I guess that's where the money is in any investing, if you have the expertise to make it work.
      • badon
        Yes, and I have TONS of expertise, so it's pretty easy for me.
      • I have more expertise than I can personally benefit from, so I write articles that strengthen the overall market, just in case I want to sell something someday.
      • What goes around, comes around.
      • Steer people in the right direction, and they will help support the market for good investment quality coins. Fail to help, and they support the market for flakey garbage.
      • That doesn't help me at all :)
      • SageOSwag
        That's a lot of power in that niche... So how long have you been into coins?
      • badon
        I've been in and out of coins for decades. In when they're profitable, out when they're not.
      • SageOSwag
        Are there fairly forseeable trends on that?
      • badon
        This time around, everything is different. I think this is the biggest bull market in numismatics in the 2300 year history of numismatics, and I expect it to be kind of insane for decades straight. It's already been 1 decade since I got into it again, and nothing has changed in the overall direction of the market.
      • SageOSwag
        Wow, so in short "not anymore" haha
      • badon
        No, I wouldn't say they're "fairly foreseeable" because most people don't understand it. I try to explain it to people, and I end up just rambling. What's really persuasive is my track record for being right. I'm by far the world's most accurate market analyst of any kind, ever, that I know of anyway.
      • SageOSwag: What do you mean "not anymore"?
      • SageOSwag
        On the regularity of coin market trends.
      • Brainstorm
        New from r/coins: 1792 1c J1: submitted by /u/NF_ → https://is.gd/1s9MQC
      • badon
        What is "not anymore"? The regularity of the trends?
      • Yeah, you could say that.
      • Same with precious metals too, actually. So it's not just coins.
      • SageOSwag
        So what are your theories on what's changed?
      • To cause this rise, I mean.
      • badon
        The natural failure of fiat.
      • It's actually the USA's wars, really.
      • The balance of power is shifting toward China, who invented fiat, and they have been hoarding the world's gold since 2003.
      • SageOSwag
        Oh, I'd heard about their gold hoard. And with a 17 or 18 trillion USD defecit from US to China... Yeah...
      • badon
        It's a lot of things, a "confluence of factors".
      • SageOSwag
        Interesting
      • badon
        Trying to explain it is when the rambling starts :)
      • It's much easier to just show people these predictions of mine:
      • Once they have confidence I'm giving them good info, they don't need to worry about figuring it all out themselves.
      • Just follow the momentum, because now you know where the momentum is. It's in the Chinese coins.
      • Everyone is underestimating how big this is getting.
      • SageOSwag
        I'll take a look at those, but if you like, you can try me on the rambling :). I like trying to figure things out when I'm way over my head. I guess that's the best way I learn, haha
      • badon
        The links are just pictures. They're very easy to see.
      • A thousand words, etc :)
      • SageOSwag
        K, I'll see what questions I can derive :)
      • badon
        China fell off the planet after the revolution of 1911. In 1911 they outlawed possession of silver.
      • In 1949, they outlawed possession of gold too.
      • Then, in 2003, the last of the restrictions were completely removed.
      • So, you have 1.3 billion people who all want gold and silver.
      • Suddenly.
      • The USA used to control the world in that regard, but now it's China.
      • They're doing 300 years of coin market maturation in only a few short decades.
      • SageOSwag
        Hmm, and now they have a strongly surging middle class
      • For the first time, maybe ever?
      • badon
        yep.
      • IN modern times, anyway.
      • For sure.
      • SageOSwag
        Sure, I wasn't talking about Warring States XD
      • I don't even know anything about ancient China =p
      • badon
        Me neither :)
      • SageOSwag
        That does make a lot of sense though
      • badon
        This is why coins instead of plain metal: http://survivingglobalrecession.com/why-collect...
      • SageOSwag
        The basic concept seems pretty straightforward to me
      • K, I'll take a look at that
      • badon
        It is. You're smarter than average though. Most people need more time to wrap their minds around all this.
      • SageOSwag
        Heh. Maybe. I'll believe I'm smart when my coins are making mutual funds look stupid ;)
      • badon
        SageOSwag: You already have coins?
      • I made my first $1 million USD on the Chinese coins, back in 2012.
      • I made more money on that than all the other things I've done in my lifetime combined.
      • And it's secure, unlike other hot anti-fiat things like bitcoin.
      • SageOSwag
        I don't yet. But I'm pretty close to sold on this though. It just makes a lot of sense given China's place in the world.
      • badon
        Yeah, it does.
      • I'll be curious to find out what you decide to get firts.
      • first
      • SageOSwag
        Ah, bitcoin is interesting too. I have an engineer friend who is interested in building his own capacitors for a home solar system to power a bitcoin farm...
      • Hah, me too
      • badon
        I've kept my distance from bitcoin, even though I was there in its earliest days.
      • People think it's this "cool rebellious" kind of thing, but it's the exact opposite. The governments would love it if the world adopted bitcoin, and it's for sinister reasons.
      • SageOSwag
        Yeah, last I checked it was at about $400 a piece, but I would be surprised if it hasn't deflated a tad since then
      • badon
        SageOSwag: Check out #cryptocurrency-collectors and tell them you heard about them in #coins
      • Uh, just go to ##cryptocoins
      • That's easier to remember. It forwards to the big channel with the long name :)
      • SageOSwag
        People got really excited about a cryptocurrency that will actually work, but I think there's a lot of excitement over the technology, with little thought to the far-future implications.
      • badon
        Yep.
      • SageOSwag
        I'll check those channels out, thanks
      • badon
        Everything is tracked, and it's not so free as people think it is. It's under centralized control, and those controllers can change the rules any time they want to.
      • Governments would love to abuse something like that.
      • So, I didn't invest in it.
      • Right now, the governments are collecting incriminating information about people using bitcoin, so they can be blackmailed, extorted, or punished later.
      • The governments are also researching ways to FALSELY incriminate people using bitcoin, which is surprisingly esay.
      • easy
      • SageOSwag
        Hmm. And given the way current leaders of world powers are behaving, I'm sure they'd love the extra step towards ultraglobalization.
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      • If that's a word.
      • Just guessing =p
      • badon
        Yeah
      • SageOSwag
        I think it describes their leanings, though.
      • badon
        That's why they have allowed the bitcoin experiment to continue, with no high-profile imprisoments directly related to bitcoin itself.
      • They're watching.
      • Planning.
      • Menacing.
      • SageOSwag
        As always XD
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      • Yeah, and it is scary what the USA's NSA can do. Short of encrypting everything you compute ever, nothing anyone does in the US is really completely hidden. And if they really want to lift the rock you're under (break AES 512 encryption), they can, and will. Not necessarily evil, just quite scary. And Orwellian, for sure.